McCain nomination not a lock?

Juan McCain and the MSM would like us to believe that he has the Republican nomination all but locked up.  Not so fast according to a poster over at the Fred Thompson News Discussion Forum.  Granted the chances are slim, but here’s an analysis if McCain is prevented from reaching the magic number of 1191 on the first vote.

Only 1471 delegates are bound for the 1st vote. 

After the 1st vote 1001 delegates are free to vote their conscience – 47%

Unless the candidate that they are bound to gets less than 35% of the vote then 1149 delegates are released – 54% After the 2nd vote then 1510 delegates are released – 71%Unless their candidate gets less than 33% of the vote then 1596 delegates are released – 75%After the 3rd vote then 1648 delegates are release – 77%

Unless their candidate gets less than 33% of the vote then 1734 delegates are released – 81%

Only 470 delegates are bound to vote for the candidate for which they were selected after the 3rd vote.

However up to 181 of those can be released by the candidate that they are bound to and 86 of those can be released as mentioned above if the candidate receives less than 33% of the vote.

Additional Analysis:

Of McCains current 870 Pledged delegates only 183 are bound to him.123 are not bound to their pledge at all.219 are released from their pledge after the 1st round.243 additional delegates are released after the 2nd round.So after the 2nd round 462 delegates could switch their vote if it looks like McCain cannot pull the votes together to get the nomination.Huckabee has a mathmatical chance of making the first round vote prevent McCain from getting the nomination, if at least 27% of Romney delegates do not vote for McCain.

Interesting to say the least. If this scenario plays out McCain is out, the question then becomes who becomes the nominee? At any rate this is why conservatives in the remaining primary states need to voice their displeasure. Do Republicans really want a nominee who over half the primary voters didn’t choose?


1 thought on “McCain nomination not a lock?

  1. Great Blog! Really enjoyed some of the comments, just dropped by to say hello, look forward to joining in the discussion later.

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