Shocking poll results in the 8th?

In this nail-biter of a race, Rep. Steve Kagen (D-Wis.) trails his Republican opponent, Reid Ribble, by one point, 44 percent to 45, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Each candidate has locked up his party’s support, and independents are breaking slightly for Kagen, 43 percent to 40, with 15 percent of independents undecided.
Kagen leads by 14 points among females, while Ribble leads by 17 points among males. Ribble is winning younger and middle-aged voters while Kagen does well among older voters.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The survey consisted of 415 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent. (Source: The Hill)

The poll shows a tightening race, perhaps closer than expected.  Especially when previously released internal polls showed a wider lead for Ribble.  It also shows why to follow this cautiously.

Perhaps the Ribble campaign would be wise to do TV and radio ads highlighting his real position on Social Security.  As Jerry points out, those Kagen attack ads may be having an impact among older voters.

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