An interesting perspective on the winnowing of the Presidential field in the Republican primary.
Once the voting started on January 3, 2008, most of the GOP candidates battened down the hatches until and stuck it out through Florida. The result, of course, was that the anti-McCain vote was split.
My expectations were that this would repeat itself — that the conservative vote would splinter — and that Mitt Romney would win the nomination. After all, what’s the incentive for dropping out before, say, South Carolina?
Regardless, it appears the field is winnowing — and this could deal a huge blow to the campaign of Romney. Romney, of course, benefits from a crowded field of conservative anti-Romneys. A crowded field means the conservative vote is split, and therefore he can win with 25, or so, percent of the vote.
With no winner-take-all contests before April 1 for 2012 is it truly beneficial for the field to winnow to only 3 or 4 before then though?
- Romney, Santorum off to NH after virtual tie (sfgate.com)
- After Iowa, It’s Still Mitt Romney’s Nomination to Lose (usnews.com)